The Future of Tobacco Control: What Happens When There Are No More Smokers to Save?
As smoking declines, the tobacco control establishment faces an existential question: what is its mission in a post-smoking world? The answer will determine whether the institutions that fought the cigarette can adapt to the reduced-risk landscape.
When smoking prevalence falls to 5%, what does the tobacco control establishment do? Continue fighting cigarettes (a shrinking target)? Pivot to fighting reduced-risk products (a larger target, but one that may be saving lives)? Declare victory and dissolve? **The tobacco control establishment has not answered this question—because answering it would require acknowledging that success (the decline of smoking) threatens its institutional survival. The establishment that was built to fight cigarettes may become an obstacle to the transition beyond them.**
